Some thoughts on realignment and TV deals

So instead, some realignment thoughts.

#1. I’m not sure that the Pac-10’s hiring of Kevin Weinberg may not be the single biggest piece of news out there. The assumption is as former Big XII commissioner and more recently key executive with the Big 10 Network that his role is to work on adding Colorado to the Pac-10 and starting a new TV network for the Pac-10.  That may be true but the more I look at the Pac-10 situation, the more I think expansion isn’t their key focus. Colorado is the only school that really fits the Pac-10. Without Colorado I find it harder to believe the Pac-10 expands.

That’s why I see the Weinberg hire as big news. Colorado floats around 50,000 in average attendance. That’s good, being in the top third of FBS but its not blockbuster. The value he brings may actually be the credible threat of a Pac-10 Network. The SEC explored the idea and Disney handed out a massive 15 year contract to head it off. Disney and Fox won’t want to lose Pac-10 content and don’t want that content going to yet another new competitor. Meanwhile Comcast, now Xfinity, is looking to buy NBC, a network needing good content. Comcast also wants key content for its cable side and was offering to help bankroll the SEC effort. Weinberg makes that threat very credible. If the Pac-10 doesn’t start a new network it will be because the value of stopping it led to a large increase in rights fees. If Colorado joins to be a part of it, the deal just becomes stronger.

#2. The Big 10 has said it might add multiple schools yet it is very much a tradition driven league and it is generating massive money. My hunch is they aren’t ready to turn the world upside down. They will add one but it will be a conservative play (think Syracuse or Rutgers).

#3. The FBS economy is out-of-balance. Currently we have 65 AQ schools out of 120 FBS schools. Financially the SEC and Big 10 stand apart from the others and the Big East is at the bottom of this heap. Realistically, the top of the heap should be closer to 40 than to 65. There are only 31 schools putting 60,000 or more in the stands on a regular basis. Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Florida State are the only ones at 70,000+ that aren’t in the SEC, Big 10, or Pac-10. In the 70,000 to 60,000 range Va.Tech, Missouri, BYU, are the only ones not in those three leagues. The Big East has no 60,000+ programs in football. They have some value in the top 24 TV markets (markets that represent one percent or more of the national viewing audience). Top 24 markets without a nearby strong SEC, Big 10, or Pac-10 presence are #1 New York, #5 Dallas/Fort Worth, #7 Boston, #9 Washington, DC, #10 Houston, #16 Denver, #21 St. Louis, #23 Pittsburgh, and #24 Charlotte. It doesn’t require a lot monkeying with the line-ups to see that Texas and Texas A&M are highly valuable since they draw well and influence major TV markets and arguably Texas is more valuable than Notre Dame who would probably the second most desired target. Virginia Tech and Missouri are next in the value line in slots #4 and #5. Some schools that don’t draw as well but have key TV value would be Boston College, North Carolina and Pitt. Then you have a few schools who draw well but there strength is diluted in other markets such as Nebraska, Florida State, and Clemson. The latter two are strong but in markets well covered by the SEC already.

#4. Think earthquakes. As the plates pass each other energy builds up and a certain amount must be released. It can be released a little at a time, leading to small quakes, or it can build up over time and be released all at once leading to a massive quake. The key in this realignment is quite simply the Big XII. If the Big 10 goes conservative and only takes a Rutgers or Syracuse and the Pac-10 does get Colorado, the Big XII can add BYU and really not miss a beat just yet. The SEC can rest on its mega TV deal and wait. Sooner or later the economic pressure is going to build and Texas has to move. It might be another five years or ten years but it has to happen. Once the Texas move happens (and in theory the Horns could go to any of the Big 10, SEC, and Pac-10 if it wants) the ACC, Big XII and Big East are basically dead meat. They will still be wealthy schools in comparison to C-USA or the Sun Belt but their finances will look more like the MWC than the SEC.

My belief is that unless Texas is ready to move, we are going to see a minor shake this time. If Colorado stays put as well, then this go round will be very minor.